Prof.
Bryan Caplan
bcaplan@gmu.edu
http://www.bcaplan.com
Econ
812
HW
#1 (please type all answers)
1. (1 page, double-spaced) Analyze the Kaldor-Hicks efficiency
consequences of FCC regulation of indecent/obscene language on commercial
television relative to laissez-faire.
Carefully distinguish costs, benefits, transfers, and deadweight costs.
2. (1 page, double-spaced) From the standpoint of Kaldor-Hicks
efficiency, answer Landsburg's question: "Do we need more
illiterates?"
3. (half page) List four
of your beliefs - easily verified in an atlas or other reference source
- that you hold to be 75% probable (prior to verification). In each case, indicate whether you were
right, along with the reference source.
Summarize your findings in a table.
How many times were you right?
Are you over- or under-confident?
4. (half page) Pick an
article off of Jstor (http://www.jstor.org) on some topic that interests
you. What prior probability do you
assign to the author(s)' thesis? Use
Bayes' Rule to calculate your posterior probability after examining the
article's evidence. Explain your
calculations.
5.
(half page) "All men are so detestable in my eyes
I should be sorry if they thought
me wise."
Moliere, The
Misanthrope
Analyze
this famous line using Bayes' Rule.
Specifically, under what conditions would it make sense to become more
confident when you learn that other people disagree with you? (Hint: Prove a relationship between P(I'm right) and P(I'm right|others disagree)).